Nucor (NYSE:NUE) shares rose more than 4% today after UBS upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy, raising its price target slightly to $160 from $156, pointing to stronger-than-expected tariff support, favorable pricing trends, and recent share price de-rating as catalysts for renewed upside.
Since early December, Nucor’s valuation has compressed, now trading at around 7.5x UBS’s 2025 EV/EBITDA estimates, down from roughly 9x. At the same time, steel prices have surged, fueled by the U.S. government’s announcement of 25% tariffs under Section 232, which have spurred a wave of near-term panic buying.
UBS expects steel prices to moderate in the second half of 2025, but believes the reshoring trend and elevated import protection levels—including potential additional tariffs on specific countries—offset the risks tied to declining demand and policy uncertainty.
The firm maintains confidence in medium-term hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices above $800 per short ton, supported by a rising cost curve driven by scrap prices and a tighter import parity environment. These dynamics have already helped revive the plate market, with Nucor’s Products segment set to benefit from tariffs on downstream goods.