Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) shares fell nearly 2% pre-market today after Bank of America downgraded the company to Neutral from Buy, citing potential risks to its 2025 outlook. The firm also reduced its price target from $180 to $155 and cut its 2025/26 earnings estimates by 6% and 8%, respectively, reflecting a significant 13-23% gap from consensus projections.
Two key factors contributed to the downgrade. First, Bank of America expressed concerns over competitive pressures in the AI sector. NVIDIA and custom chip providers like Marvell and Broadcom were highlighted as major players that could hinder AMD’s market share growth in AI accelerators. The firm pointed to signals from Amazon, AMD’s largest cloud customer, which indicated a preference for custom solutions such as Trainium, Marvell, and NVIDIA products, limiting demand for AMD’s offerings. Similar trends were observed among other cloud giants like Google.
Bank of America projected that AMD would hold just 4% of the $200 billion AI accelerator market by 2025, far behind NVIDIA’s dominant share of over 80%.
The second concern centered on the potential for a correction in the PC processor market. AMD’s client PC sales had surged 40% in the latter half of 2024, but the firm anticipated a slowdown in the first half of 2025, which could challenge the company’s growth trajectory.
Despite these challenges, the note acknowledged AMD’s strong execution and its ability to capitalize on Intel’s ongoing restructuring issues, which provide opportunities for AMD to expand its market share in PC and server CPUs. Additionally, the company’s partnerships with Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle were viewed as strategic positives.
However, Bank of America tempered its outlook by emphasizing that AMD’s prospects in the AI sector remain limited, reducing the likelihood of the company exceeding Street estimates.